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Subsidence View - September 2018

The subsidence surge risk continues as red. This is based on the following:
  • The MORECS measure of soil moisture deficit remains near to the maximum 308.
  • Rainfall was virtually nil for the 12 weeks to 7th August, with record breaking temperatures delivering the hottest summer ever according to the Met Office. August rainfall overall was average (and slightly higher than average in the south east). However, this is not enough to replenish the previous soil moisture deficit created.
  • We are seeing new, fresh crack damage caused by clay shrinkage due to the water demands of nearby vegetation in all clay areas of the country.
  • During August, claims have increased with volumes 3 to 4 times business as usual across the market. In addition the repudiation rate has reduced significantly.
  • The size of the upturn will be dependent on the weather in September and October. So far the forecast for September continues to be relatively dry. Based on this we expect the current volumes to extend into September and October. Our prediction is that circa 21,000 claims will be instructed to market in 2018, versus the ABI reported 3 year average of 14,000.
If you would like to talk to us about how Building Validation Solutions can help with your subsidence surge plan or improve you approach to subsidence claims generally, please contact Giles Carter on