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Subsidence View - September 2016

Subsidence View: September 2016

 

 

The hot / dry summer weather experienced in July continued into August. Rainfall was 53% of average in the clay soil areas of south east England resulting in an "absolute drought", with above average temperatures peaking at a sweltering 34.1 degrees in Faversham, Kent.

 

As a result, the MORECS measure of Soil Moisture Deficit took a significant step upwards to week 35.
 

 

There will not be a subsidence surge in 2016, but a continuation of the hot/dry weather during September could still cause a significant claims upturn. Looking back at historic weather records, 2016 most closely matches the conditions in 2009, when claim volumes in the 2nd half of the year saw a 30% uplift on Jan-June volumes, without maximum MORECS being reached.

 

 

So will the weather conditions in September replicate 2009? The tabloid newspapers are certainly promoting a prolonged end to summer 2016:

  • Daily Express: SUMMER IN SEPTEMBER: Britain set for TWO WEEKS of glorious weather as temperatures hit 30°C
  • Daily Mirror: UK weather: Second 'summer' to kick off with Britain set to enjoy hottest Autumn day since 1940s
  • The Sun: AS HOT AS CORFU
  • Daily Star - Britain to boil as tropical blast brings September 30°C scorcher
  • Independent: Hot and humid temperatures expected to continue into Autumn
 
But what do our usual weather experts think?
 

MetOffice - The south and east should see the best of the drier and brighter weather, but these conditions could spread northwards at times. Temperatures through the period should be generally above average, perhaps warm at times in the southeast.


The Weather Network - The TWO forecast for September suggests there will be a lot of reasonable weather with above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are expected to be below average in the south and close to average in the north. On balance a drier and warmer than average month is forecast for much of the UK.

 

BVS Prediction - Based on the current forecasts, our prediction for 2016 is that ABI subsidence claim numbers in the 2nd half of the year could increase by 15%-30% versus January to June volumes.

 

Building Validation Solutions currently have additional subsidence claim handling capacity, so please contact Giles Carter on g.carter@bv-solutions.co.uk  to discuss how we could help your customers if their property is affected.