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Subsidence View - October 2018


The subsidence surge risk continues as red. This is based on the following:

  • The MORECS measure of soil moisture deficit remains near to the maximum 308.
  • Rainfall was virtually nil for the 12 weeks to 7th August, with record breaking temperatures delivering the hottest summer ever according to the Met Office. August rainfall overall was average (and slightly higher than average in the south east). September rainfall was generally below average, with 65% in the south east (of which half was on 1 day). This is not enough to replenish the previous soil moisture deficit created.
  • We are continuing to see new, fresh crack damage caused by clay shrinkage due to the water demands of nearby vegetation in all clay areas of the country. We are also continuing to see damage which occurred earlier in the summer, but is only now beginning to be reported.
  • During September, claim volumes have continued to increase versus August, with volumes around 4 times business as usual across the market. In addition the repudiation rate has reduced significantly.
  • The end of the upturn will be dependent on the weather. So far the forecast for October continues to be relatively dry, so there remains potential for further new damage to occur. In addition, we expect some damage from earlier in the summer is still yet to be reported. Based on this we expect the current volumes to extend into and October and possibly November.
  • Our prediction is that circa 24,000 claims will be instructed to market in 2018, versus the ABI reported 3 year average of 14,000. We also expect claim numbers to remain elevated into q1 2019.

If you would like to talk to us about how Building Validation Solutions can help with your subsidence surge plan or improve you approach to subsidence claims generally, please contact Giles Carter on