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Subsidence View June 2020

Subsidence View – 2nd June 2020
 
The MORECS measure of Soil Moisture Deficit currently lies 3 weeks ahead of the two significant surge years of 2003 and 2018.The current Subsidence Surge Risk is now assessed as "Mid Amber", but will 2020 develop into a full blown "surge" event year...So what of 2020 so far...
 
 
According to the latest Met Office data,  it has been the sunniest Spring on record for the UK (and all the home nations) and the driest May on record in England.  Some researchers are even suggesting that the Covid 19 Lockdown may have triggered the prolonged sunshine thanks to falling pollution levels.
 
Although the winter saw rainfall leading to flooding in some areas, this unprecedented period of settled spring weather has resulted in the MORECS measure of Soil Moisture Deficit taking another significant step upwards. It is currently lying 3 weeks ahead of the two significant surge years of 2003 and 2018.
 
 
 
So does the elevated MORECS mean there will be another large surge of claims similar to 2018...
Well, all the recent surge events were triggered by record breaking temperatures in either June, July or August. However, from a higher position in 2012 the weather was cool and wet and whilst the UK enjoyed some sunshine during the London Olympics there was certainly no surge.  
 
So what does the summer weather look like...
The Met Office are continuing their recent strategy of limiting their forecasts to 30 days ahead. The Met Office forecast to 30th June indicates:
  • The beginning of this period looks to be rather cool with a shift to a more changeable regime. 
  •  From the middle of June, there should be a return to more settled conditions with longer drier and brighter spells...generally drier than average...temperatures are more likely to be above average in the south, but nearer normal further north.
  • https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/seven-day
The Weather Outlook (TWO) have been much bolder and issued their second summer forecast for June, July and August.  The headline is:
 
The likelihood of an early start to any upturn (similar to 2006) is still very real, although the short term forecast suggests the heatwave conditions required to trigger this will not occur in June. However, the surge risk remains and is currently assessed as "Mid Amber".  At this stage, our prediction for 2020 is for ABI claim numbers to be higher than the 2015/16/17 three year average of 16,000 and we recommend that insurers review their surge response plans and remain vigilant, as any upturn could arrive very quickly. This year there is also the added dimension of safe working in accordance with Covid 19 restrictions to factor in.
 
If you would like to talk to us about how BVS Subsidence can help with your subsidence surge plan or improve you approach to subsidence claims generally, please contact us.