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Subsidence View - July 2016

Subsidence View: July 2016


Although June started off with a mini heat wave, the second half of the month brought a sudden change - including storms and localised flash flooding -  resulting in the first "Peoples Sunday" at Wimbledon since 2004. June rainfall was 208% of average in the clay soil areas of south east England, although some areas of the north were actually drier than average.



As a result, the MORECS measure of Soil Moisture Deficit took a significant dip and is currently at its lowest figure for the end of June since 2008.



The current surge risk is low, although a period of sustained hot/dry weather during July, August or early September could still cause a claims upturn. But how likely is this according to the weather experts?


MetOffice - On the whole, southern parts of the UK will see a great deal of dry, bright and warm weather through the second half of July.  Into August, generally settled conditions are likely across many southern parts of the UK, often extending into central parts too, with plenty of dry, bright and warm weather and more especially south eastern parts should see some warm, or very warm temperatures.


The Weather Network - The headline is for a mixed month in July, with temperatures forecast to be close to the average and rainfall amounts slightly above. As usual forecast confidence quickly falls when looking beyond one week ahead. Therefore, it's still possible that the month will turn out drier and warmer than is currently expected. A minority of computer model runs have shown the Azores High Pressure cell building towards the UK quite strongly and if this is the outcome summer could finally get going. This is something to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead.


BVS Prediction - Based on the current forecast, our prediction for 2016 is that ABI claim numbers will be similar to the 2014/15 average, although numbers could increase if the weather becomes hotter/drier than currently forecast.


If you would like to talk to us about how Building Validation Solutions can help with your approach to subsidence claims generally, please contact Giles Carter on