Summer finally arrived during July, with a heatwave across the whole of the UK. July rainfall was 48% of average in the clay soil areas of south east England.
As a result, the MORECS measure of Soil Moisture Deficit took a significant step upwards to week 31, although it remains a long way behind the same week in the surge year of 2003.
The current surge risk is low, although a period of sustained hot/dry weather during August and September could still cause a claims upturn - similar to 2009 when maximum MORECS wasn't reached.
The tabloid newspapers including the Daily Express, Daily Mirror and Daily Mail have all predicted a return of heatwave conditions for the first weekend in August, and bookmaker Coral has cut the odds on August being the hottest on record from 5-1 to 3-1, amid a flurry of bets that Britain will bask in a long heatwave before the month is out. But what do our usual weather experts think?
MetOffice - Very warm conditions are expected across the south and east on Sunday, but becoming rather cool towards the mid week...Thereafter, temperatures are expected to be near normal, although warm conditions could affect the south and east at times.
The Weather Network - The headline is for a reasonable month with slightly above average temperatures and slightly below average amounts of rain. The chances of fine spells of weather developing across most of the UK (rather than just the north or south as has often been the case to date) are considered to be quite high. At times it could become very warm in the south but a return of the hot weather which developed for a time during the second half of July is not the favoured outcome.
BVS Prediction - Based on the current forecasts, our prediction for 2016 is that ABI subsidence claim numbers will be similar to the 2014/15 average. Numbers could increase if the weather becomes hotter/drier than the current uncertain forecast.
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